Gustavo Coronel
Regresé
a Tulsa, donde estudié Geología y pasé cuatro años felices. Llegué allí
en 1951, como tímido adolescente y regresé a Venezuela en 1955, como un
adulto extrovertido. Amo a Tulsa casi tanto como a Maracaibo. Fuí a dar
una charla al capítulo de la AFRC, el Comité Americano de Relaciones
Exteriores, liderado por el ex-presidente de la Universidad, Robert
Donaldson, un especialista en Rusia. Viajé por tierra con mi esposa, a
fin de visitar diferentes sitios de Virginia, Tennesee y Arkansas antes
de llegar a Oklahoma. En especial, queríamos parar en Nashville, la Meca
de la música “Country”. Allí logramos ir a varios sitios del centro de
la ciudad donde escuchamos y hasta bailamos alguna de esa música, con la
ayuda de un buen whisky local. Luego regresamos por el Norte, via San
Luis, Missouri y Columbus, Ohio.
En Tulsa visitamos la Universidad, fuí entrevistado en la radio KWGS, see: http://publicradiotulsa.org/post/energy-consultant-gustavo-coronel-venezuela-oil-and-politics-21st-century (perdonen
el tartamudeo) , fuímos al Museo Gilcrease, lleno de obras maestras
del Oeste estadounidense, en cuyo jardín hay un bello busto de Bolívar
donado por el Congreso venezolano en la década de 1990.
En mi charla, ante un grupo de unas 150 personas, una audiencia muy distinguida, dije lo siguiente:
VENEZUELA: OIL, POLITICS AND OUTLOOK
1. Venezuela
has been traditionally identified with oil, politics, beautiful women
and baseball. Now, unfortunately, we have to add drug trafficking. Oil
and Cocaine exports are the two main industries in the country and,
sadly, both are run by the government.
2. Women
are still beautiful and they keep winning international beauty
contests, significantly helped by our superb plastic surgeons. Miguel
Cabrera keeps winning batting titles in the major leagues where there
are about 110 active Venezuelan players.
LET ME GIVE YOU SOME BAD NEWS AND SOME GOOD NEWS ABOUT VENEZUELA
THE BAD NEWS
3. Venezuela
has been living a great tragedy. During the last 16 years the
government has run the country into the ground. Let me give you some
statistics:
· National
income during these 16 years has ben $2.3 trillion, the highest ever,
thanks to the increases in oil prices during 2003-2008
· In spite of this huge income National debt has increased from $23 billion in 1998 to about $200 billion in 2015
· Oil
production has declined from 3.2 mmbd in 1998 to 2.6 mmbd in 2015,
while oil industry employees have quintupled during this period
· About
400,000 barrels of oil per day are being sent to ideologically friendly
countries such as Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Argentina, Jamaica, at
non-commercial prices. The regime has transferred about $50 billion to
these countries in the last 16 years.
· Another
400,000 barrels per day are sent to China to pay for a $50 billion loan
that has already been mostly spent on political programs
· Today, oil exports to the U.S. are less than half the volumes of 16 years ago
· In
spite of the significant oil income poverty is greater now than when
Chavez came into power. Today food, medicines and essential domestic
goods are difficult to find and Venezuelans have to make hours-long
lines to buy what they can find. Even Toilet paper is scarce
· Venezuela
has the highest inflation rate and the second highest murder rate in
the world. It is also one of the 10 most corrupt countries in the world
according to Transparency International
4. As
if this was not bad enough the Chavez-Maduro regime has aligned
themselves with rogue governments: Libya, Iraq, Cuba, Nicaragua,
Belarus, Syria, Zimbabwe, even North Korea. And with the main terrorist
groups: FARC in Colombia, ETA in Spain; Hezbollah in the Middle East.
The connections with these countries and groups are very well
documented.
5. Evidence
is mounting about the involvement of army generals and high level
government officers in drug trafficking. Nephews of the President have
been captured in Haiti trying to smuggle 88 kilos of cocaine into the
U.S. They are in prison in New York, awaiting trial, being defended by
Squire Patton Boggs, a prominent legal group based in Washington DC that
serves the Venezuelan government.
6. You
might be thinking: why have the country and the Region allowed this
tragedy to take place? And the answer is simple and tragic: MONEY.
Chavez instituted a national policy of handouts, supported by the huge
oil income, distributing free food, free medicines, even free houses, to
his followers. He also gave abundant cash and subsidized oil to
friendly governments to keep them under his political influence. In
doing this he was helped by the historical resentment Latin American
governments have had against the U.S. Voting at the OAS is controlled
by Venezuela through the block of Caribbean countries that receive
subsidized oil.
7. What
is the role of the military? This disaster could have been averted if
the military had played its proper role as guarantor of the
Constitution. What happened was the opposite. The military became an
accomplice of the regime, to the extent that Venezuela has a
predominantly military government in which there are more than 200
active military officers holding government positions, while Generals
and lesser ranks are actively participating in drug trafficking. This
has effectively closed the door to civic rebellion, since the armed
forces have all the guns.
8. Venezuela today is materially and spiritually bankrupt.
9. I believe I have given you all more bad news about Venezuela that you are able to digest. Now for the good news.
THE GOOD NEWS
10. Last
November 22, the corrupt government of the Kirchners in Argentina ended
and a democratic president will take charge. In Cuba Raul Castro says
that he is surrendering power in 2017 while Fidel is now just a bad
dream. In Brazil Lula could be going to prison and President Dilma
Roussef is close to being impeached. Rafael Correa in Ecuador has said,
as Duran said in his fight against Sugar Ray Leonard: NO MAS. Latin
American dictators and demagogues seem to be in the way out.
11. In
Venezuela the government of Nicolas Maduro, imposed on Venezuelans by
deceased dictator Hugo Chavez, seems to be under great pressure, after
the legislative elections of last Sunday. The opposition now controls
the National Assembly and has gained a 2/3 majority that will allow it
to introduce great political and economic changes. This election has
marked a radical turning point in the Venezuelan political situation and
signals the end of the Chávez era.
12. There
is a wave of liberalization in Latin America. This means private
investment will be able to return to the region and there will be still
another chance for democracy to show that it is a preferable system to
dictatorships and demagoguery.
WHAT SHOULD THE U.S. DO ABOUT VENEZUELA?
· Continue
investigating and prosecuting the members of the Venezuelan regime
involved in human rights violations and in drug trafficking
· Act more aggressively within the OAS in order to ask for sanctions against Venezuela for the violations to democratic procedures
· Continue denouncing unilaterally the undemocratic nature of the Venezuelan regime
In
summary, apply all possible pressure against the abusive Venezuelan
regime. This could be difficult to achieve in the short term, as
President Obama has Cuba as top priority and will not want to do
anything to jeopardize these newly found relations.
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