The crisis next time, by Carmen Reinhart and Vicente R. Reinhart

At the turn of this century, most economists in the developed world believed that major economic disasters were a thing of the past, or at least relegated to volatile emerging markets. Financial systems in rich countries, the thinking went, were too sophisticated to simply collapse. Markets were capable of regulating themselves. Policymakers had tamed the business cycle. Recessions would remain short, shallow, and rare.
Seven years later, house prices across the United States fell sharply, undercutting the value of complicated financial instruments that used real estate as collateral—and setting off a chain of consequences that brought on the most catastrophic global economic collapse since the Great Depression. Over the course of 2008, banks, mortgage lenders, and insurers failed. Lending dried up. The contagion spread farther and faster than almost anyone expected. By 2009, economies making up three-quarters of global GDP were shrinking. A decade on, most of these economies have recovered, but the process has been slow and painful, and much of the damage has proved lasting.....

EN:

http://www.aei.org/publication/the-crisis-next-time/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTXpFd05ESTJOalEzT1RKaiIsInQiOiJBTk1TVFRFdm4wM3pVVGVtcUNoZlFvQUU4VUYrU0xRN01LbXRUTW82cFRKTDJyczVraWIrWHhXZGcxMkJubFpBdmZhMUU5VFgrOTZhQXh3cHNZd0JsbitmRFRzV1JNclo0S1p0aUZwaU1USVVxRVU3MGpOT2NvMEluZ3U2UEpjeCJ9