Prospects for Democratic Change in Venezuela
As 2018 drew to a close, Venezuela’s strongman Nicolás Maduro and his
inner circle appeared to be tightening their grip on power. In the
preceding years, Maduro and his governing clique had coopted or silenced
virtually every democratic institution in the country, from the courts
to the press to the electoral council. They stocked the senior ranks of
the military with loyalists, many of them implicated in the ruling
regime’s corruption, and relied on paramilitary colectivos as
additional bulwarks against unrest. They responded to the 2015
opposition takeover of the National Assembly by usurping the
constitutional prerogatives of the legislature, the country’s only
remaining democratically legitimate institution, and creating a
parallel National Constituent Assembly. They wore down their political
opposition with years of persecution and repression. And they engineered
via fraudulent elections a new presidential term for Maduro,
consolidating Venezuela’s descent into dictatorial rule.
Just one month later, at the end of January 2019, Venezuela’s
political circumstances had been radically transformed— burgeoning hope
for a peaceful, democratic restoration in the country. Maduro now faces
his toughest challenge since taking power in 2013: the emergence of Juan
Guaidó, the young National Assembly leader who has quickly achieved
widespread recognition as the interim president of Venezuela. The
stunning emergence of Guaidó offered renewed hope for democratic change
in Venezuela. However, such change remains far from inevitable.
A new interim report by the Venezuela Working Group, an initiative of the Inter-American Dialogue’s Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program,
aims to advance the cause of peaceful, democratic transition in
Venezuela by outlining potential scenarios, analyzing the key factors
and central actors that will shape future developments, and identifying
risks and opportunities for those working to restore democracy in
Caracas.
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