Saturday, April 27, 2019

Transition Interrupted?, by Michael Camilleri

Prospects for Democratic Change in Venezuela 

As 2018 drew to a close, Venezuela’s strongman Nicolás Maduro and his inner circle appeared to be tightening their grip on power. In the preceding years, Maduro and his governing clique had coopted or silenced virtually every democratic institution in the country, from the courts to the press to the electoral council. They stocked the senior ranks of the military with loyalists, many of them implicated in the ruling regime’s corruption, and relied on paramilitary colectivos as additional bulwarks against un­rest. They responded to the 2015 opposition takeover of the National Assembly by usurping the constitutional preroga­tives of the legislature, the country’s only remaining demo­cratically legitimate institution, and creating a parallel Na­tional Constituent Assembly. They wore down their political opposition with years of persecution and repression. And they engineered via fraudulent elections a new presidential term for Maduro, consolidat­ing Venezuela’s descent into dictatorial rule.
Just one month later, at the end of January 2019, Venezue­la’s political circumstances had been radically transformed— burgeoning hope for a peaceful, democratic restoration in the country. Maduro now faces his toughest challenge since taking power in 2013: the emergence of Juan Guaidó, the young National Assembly leader who has quickly achieved widespread recognition as the interim president of Venezuela. The stunning emergence of Guaidó offered renewed hope for democratic change in Venezuela. However, such change remains far from inevitable.
A new interim report by the Venezuela Working Group, an initiative of the Inter-American Dialogue’s Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program, aims to advance the cause of peaceful, democratic transition in Venezuela by outlining potential scenarios, analyzing the key factors and central actors that will shape future developments, and identifying risks and opportunities for those working to restore democracy in Caracas.

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