Friday, July 28, 2017

PDVSA Sanctions: How bad is it?, by Carlos Sucre y Ramón Espinasa

How badly could oil sanctions hit Venezuela?
In 2016, Venezuela made about US$16 billion from its oil exports, basically from five markets: the United States, China, India, Central America and some Caribbean countries.
The last two don’t generate much income: we sell them oil at huge discounts through the Petrocaribe scheme, which allows payments in kind and provides generous financing. Likewise, the oil sent to China does not generate cash flow, since the value of these oil cargoes only serves to pay down the huge debt Venezuela owes them, estimated at around US$65 billion.
For the most part, Venezuela gets cash to finance its expenditures only from oil that goes to the United States and India.
Venezuela became a major supplier to the Indian market after the European Union and the United States imposed sanctions on the Iranian oil sector. India, which imports more than 4 million barrels per day (mbd), has replaced Iranian oil in part with Venezuelan oil: they get 300,000 barrels a day from Venezuela.
The United States, despite Venezuela’s strident rhetoric, remains PDVSA’s biggest customer and receives a daily average of 750,000 barrels. In 2016, from that export volume, Venezuela made about US$10 billion, more than 62% of its total income from oil exports for the year.

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